Por Nilton Molina, presidente do Instituto de Longevidade Mongeral Aegon, no Correio Braziliense
No último trimestre de 2019, o Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) divulgou estudo que revelou, novamente, que estamos vivendo cada vez mais. Segundo o Instituto, a expectativa de vida média do brasileiro ao nascer em 2018 chegou em 76,3 anos. Esse resultado representa um aumento de três meses e quatro dias no intervalo de um ano. A boa notícia é que não vamos parar por aí. Segundo as estimativas demográficas, a expectativa é de que este indicador, projetado para o ano de 2042, supere os 80 anos de idade.
É importante incluirmos ao debate outro dado relevante. Também segundo o IBGE, a expectativa de sobrevida média à idade alcançada de uma pessoa de 70 anos em 2015 é de mais 15 anos. Há 20 anos, ou seja, em 2000, esse mesmo indicador apontava para uma sobrevida média de 12 anos. Quando projetamos a análise mais para frente, especificamente no ano de 2060, a expectativa média de sobrevida para um indivíduo de 70 anos será de mais 17,5 anos. É a manifestação clara e evidente do fenômeno da longevidade.
Mas, afinal, de que país estamos falando? Enquanto especialista e estudioso em longevidade, previdência e demografia, afirmo sem sombra de dúvidas: deixaremos de ser um país jovem nos próximos 40 anos. Este cenário traz impactos para vários segmentos econômicos. Neste momento, no entanto, vou especificar a minha análise ao mercado em que atuo há mais de 50 anos: o de seguros de vida e de previdência, ramo que, segundo dados da Confederação Nacional das Seguradoras (CNseg), representou 2,3% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) brasileiro no período de janeira a novembro de 2019.
O primeiro aspecto da minha análise é o da previdência social. Eu posso afirmar, sem sombra de dúvidas, que o fenômeno da longevidade exigirá reformas cada vez mais frequentes. A matemática é simples: se vamos viver mais, é preciso garantir o pagamento da chamada aposentadoria por mais tempo. Consequentemente, será fundamental, minimamente, contribuir por mais tempo. Adiciona-se a isso mais um ingrediente: a queda na taxa de reposição, fator que aliado às melhorias da saúde impulsionam a longevidade.
Isso revela uma oportunidade grande e única para o segmento de previdência complementar. No entanto, é preciso ressaltar uma questão importante. O esforço de poupança do brasileiro pensando a longo prazo, ou seja, para o futuro, mesmo na iniciativa privada, deverá ser ainda maior em volume e em tempo de contribuição para garantir a reserva financeira mais adequada na hora de desacelerar a rotina de trabalho.
Já quando olhamos o mercado seguro de vida, podemos visualizar algumas possibilidades de análises. Pelo ponto de vista dos produtos de risco de morte, a longevidade e o aumento da expectativa de vida da população favorecem diretamente que essas soluções fiquem, na verdade, mais baratas para o consumidor.
Quando temos tábuas atuarias mais atualizadas, o mercado pode oferecer seguro de vida cada vez mais competitivo, uma vez que o tempo de vida do indivíduo passa a ser maior, tendo impacto direto no preço. Ou seja, se tem a expectativa de viver mais, o cliente pagará mais tempo e, consequentemente, pagará um valor menor referente a esta proteção.
Outra questão é que as pessoas estão cada vez mais ativas. Dessa forma, permanecerão por mais tempo no mercado trabalho, o que tornará cada vez mais recorrente e crescente a contratação de produtos e soluções garantidoras da renda. São exemplos de seguros para esta finalidade o Diária por Incapacidade Temporária (DIT), Diária de Internação Hospitalar (DIH) e Renda por Invalidez.
O mercado de seguro de vida e previdência tem crescido ano a ano e de forma consistente. Não há dúvidas de que a longevidade, juntamente com a maior conscientização financeira da população e a estabilidade econômica, serão fatores que certamente contribuirão para alavancar ainda mais esta indústria e fazer com que esse segmento alcance patamares históricos.
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