Por Antonio Penteado Mendonça, no Estadão
Efeitos negativos do vírus que nasceu na China e se espalha por todos os continentes serão maiores sobre a atividade econômica do que sobre a saúde dos brasileiros
Depois de tomar a China de assalto, o coronavírus se espalhou pelo mundo e, hoje, não tem nenhum continente em que o novo vírus não esteja presente. O Brasil foi o primeiro país da América Latina a ter casos confirmados; depois, foi a vez do México. E, na sequência, a África, último continente a ser assaltado pela nova pandemia, informou que a Nigéria também tinha seu doente contaminado por ele.
Se logo após seu surgimento a evolução na China foi rápida e no resto do mundo lenta, as coisas se inverteram. Enquanto o ritmo da propagação na China diminui, nos outros países o vírus ganha velocidade.
Ninguém sabe a extensão do que vai acontecer, mas o coronavírus, além de atacar as pessoas, está causando estragos devastadores na economia, tanto que a OCDE já reviu seus cálculos para diminuir a previsão de crescimento mundial. E, pelo andar da carruagem, há chances concretas da diminuição ser revista, para reduzir ainda mais o índice de crescimento em 2020.
A China suspendeu a atividade de cidades inteiras, fechou fábricas e escolas, confinou milhões de pessoas. As principais bolsas de valores do mundo sofreram quedas recordes. Exportações e importações estão sendo canceladas. A atividade econômica nos países mais afetados entrou em compasso de espera. O turismo internacional está em crise, com companhias áreas suspendendo seus voos para os mais diversos lugares. O desemprego é uma ameaça real. E neste momento o coronavírus ainda está se espalhando. Se se trata de epidemia ou pandemia não tem a menor importância para as milhares de pessoas infectadas pelo vírus. O que elas querem é recuperar a saúde o mais rapidamente possível, o que acontece com a imensa maioria para quem o coronavírus não passa de uma gripe, com febre e dores no corpo. Na maioria das vezes, o vírus é perigoso para idosos e pessoas com baixa resistência imunológica.
Muito embora as medidas adotadas pelo governo brasileiro sejam adequadas para enfrentar o coronavírus, ainda é cedo para se ter uma ideia clara de como ele vai se desenvolver por aqui. De toda forma, o impacto negativo na economia é certo, ainda mais porque temos na China e nos Estados Unidos, onde o vírus vai ganhando força, nossos principais parceiros comerciais.
Quanto ao vírus em si, ao que parece, a taxa de letalidade é baixa, ao redor de 3%, o que é muito menos do que a taxa de mortalidade da dengue. E, apesar de não nos darmos conta, somos campeões mundiais de dengue.
De acordo com o Ministério da Saúde, até o fim de fevereiro de 2020 o País teve mais de 90 mil notificações da doença, sendo que o Estado de São Paulo é onde se dá a maior incidência, com mais de 10 mil notificações até janeiro. Cinco pessoas tiveram suas mortes por dengue confirmadas e mais de 20 outros óbitos estão sob análise.
Além da dengue, a chikungunya teve mais de 900 notificações no começo do ano e o sarampo continua firme e forte no cenário nacional.
Ninguém está dizendo que o coronavírus não é uma ameaça séria, mas, diante de dengue, chikungunya, febre amarela, sarampo, hanseníase, falta de saneamento, saúde pública sucateada, homicídios e acidentes de trânsito, ele é só mais um problema.
Neste momento, o mais importante é a adoção de medidas para evitar o pânico. Ainda não há razão para se imaginar que o coronavírus será uma epidemia mais letal do que as outras doenças com as quais convivemos e que se tornaram parte de nossa rotina, da mesma forma que os homicídios e os mortos no trânsito.
Checar as informações sobre o coronavírus, verificar a origem dos dados sobre a doença, conferir com as informações oficiais e seguir as instruções das autoridades neste momento é o mais importante.
O coronavírus terá impacto no nosso desenvolvimento, que já estava sendo revisto para baixo, comprometendo a retomada do crescimento nacional, pelo menos em 2020.
Mas isso não significa que teremos uma epidemia devastadora ameaçando a população. Provavelmente seus efeitos negativos serão maiores sobre a atividade econômica do que sobre a saúde do brasileiro.
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